Southeast Asia has its fair share of extreme drought events. Between 2015 and 2020, two of the strongest droughts in the region’s recent history, which affected all 10 ASEAN member states, happened.[i] At the height of the crisis, over 70 percent of the land area in Southeast Asia suffered deficient precipitation levels relative to the average conditions (Figure 1). Compounding to this hazard is the wide exposure and susceptibility of people to drought events. An estimated 392 million people (or approximately 62 percent of the region’s population) are living in drought hotspots, and the poor are severely and disproportionately vulnerable as they have less coping capacity.[ii] In addition, drought events have cascading effects on the economy and industries, especially in the agricultural sector. A dry spell in the farmlands account for around $51 billion in losses, or 60% of the average annual losses due to disasters in the region.
The warning signs are clear and alarming. With the hazards, vulnerability, and impact all documented, droughts are undeniable risks in Southeast Asia that needs the attention of governments. A puzzling policy challenge however is that even though droughts are episodic and expected every few years, it remains underreported, with national adaptation measures fragmented, and is lower on the list of priorities among policy makers.[iii]
Figure 1. Drought Hazards in Southeast Asia
If droughts are recurring disasters with a huge and widespread impact, why is there a lack of attention towards building resilience towards it?
Unlike sudden and intense disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, or pandemics, droughts are characterized by a slow and gradual onset of symptoms that accumulate over time. Using the 1981 movie Quest for Fire—where a pre-historic tribe underwent an existential crisis due to their fire being extinguished—as an analogy, droughts do not suddenly snuff the fire, but droughts cause the flame to slowly burn smaller and wither gently. This slow and gradual characteristic of droughts make it easy for policymakers to not see the existential crisis immediately. For example, between 2006 and 2015, the region experienced relatively normal precipitation ranges which pushed drought-related concerns to the back of the minds of policymakers. This makes droughts easy to lose track of, and thus results in delays in implementing mitigation and adaptation efforts. [v]
The lack of attention given to drought-related responses is a case of policy myopia among government authorities. Policy myopia is defined as the lack of foresight, anticipation, and planning in the present to address the issues of tomorrow.[vi] In addition, the usual disaster risk and reduction strategies are closely associated with sudden disasters (e.g. floods, typhoons) and focus has been largely on the response and recovery from the said shocks. The management of slow-onset disasters has not been fully incorporated into national strategies.[vii]
Southeast Asia however should not wait for the “fire” to be extinguished or feel an existential crisis to kick in before doing something about drought events. To fix policy myopia, viewing the problem with a lens of resilience can better prepare the region for upcoming droughts. Being short-sighted with a focus on response and recovery would not cut it. The efforts should be geared towards building back better—with the goal of reducing the risks of prolonged drought events, and at the same time reducing the impact when it does happen. It is not merely bouncing back, but “bouncing forward” that would be key for drought resilience.
Figure 2. Clusters of drought impacts
How should this play out in the region? First, a mindset change among policymakers in tackling droughts in Southeast Asia is needed to work towards resilience. It is important for governments to see that droughts do not happen in a vacuum, and the effects are devastating should no intervention be done. Putting droughts in a broader context of cascading disasters, and not just about a discussion of water shortages, would deepen understanding of the corresponding risks and breed urgency to address it. As the recent ESCAP and ASEAN report notes, there are several clusters that are closely related to droughts (Figure 2):
- First, forest fires and haze—in Indonesia for example—are a function of droughts as well.[ix] Granted, poor land and farming practices are also a part of the problem, but a long dry season exacerbates forest fires which affects water resources and has detrimental impacts of respiratory health.
- Second, droughts also increase the possibility of salt-water intrusions up rivers and canals due to fresh-water sources drying up. This has caused water shortages and damaged crops in Vietnam and Thailand, for example.[x]
- Third, droughts have direct impacts on poverty and food security. In terms of employment, 34 percent of the working population in Southeast Asia is in the agricultural sector and prolonged dry seasons affect their incomes negatively.[xi] Droughts also kill crops and lessens agricultural yields, thus affecting food supplies.
- Finally, droughts also affect the economies of Southeast Asia especially in the sectors of trade and energy. For example, Thailand experienced its lowest yield in rice, one of their top exports, in 2019 due to droughts and thus affecting its competitiveness in the global rice market.[xii] In addition, droughts also have impacts on hydropower plants, making them run less efficiently, and causing lower functionality and disruptions in energy operations.
Second, while a whole-of-region approach is needed to mitigate and adapt to drought events, there should be changes in national-level planning. A major step forward has been made in the region with the publication of the ASEAN Regional Plan of Action on Adaptation to Drought 2021-2025 in late 2020.[xiii] The plan details priority areas for countries to have sustainable practices in livelihood, natural resources, agriculture, energy, and socio-economic development that would manage the risks of droughts and its impacts. The challenge however is translating the plans into national level actionable items. As noted, drought management measures remain spotty across ASEAN economies, with the Philippines as the only country with a National Drought Plan.[xiv]
It should be noted however that countries such as Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam have all recognized the importance of addressing droughts by incorporating it into various disaster plans and sectoral plans. Having a national drought plan, however, helps elevate further the importance of addressing prolonged dry seasons and consolidates the efforts across industries. National-level planning also provides a stronger institutional justification for financing mitigation and adaptation measures. A long-term national plan protects against policy myopia as a multi-year roadmap, with yearly targets and earmarked budget, provides a guideline for drought-related initiatives, ensures that these are not overlooked, and can be tracked easily.
Finally, governments should ensure that bridge financing is available in order to implement resilience initiatives against droughts, including insurance for those who lack the capacity to cope. Risk mitigation and adaptation financing measures are often talked about in the context of regional efforts, especially through the regional framework of the ASEAN Disaster Risk and Financing Insurance Plan of Action. What is often overlooked is how it happens on the ground. It is not only policy makers who suffer from myopia, but stakeholders, including farmers and fisherfolks, may also suffer from not looking at the bigger picture.
Asking the population, especially the vulnerable ones, to instantly change their behaviours and shift to more sustainable practices that can contribute to disaster resilience, may receive some pushback especially if long-entrenched practices are disrupted. It would be challenging for farmers to unlearn their old ways when droughts have been long part, and to some extent an accepted aspect, of their crop cycles. This is where bridge financing would be key—a mechanism to ease in the transition of sustainable practices and ensure a smoother transition. Access to financing, especially to those who lack the capacity to cope, would ensure better and long-term adoption of resilience initiatives.
Drought is a complex problem that the region is facing, compounded by a multitude of factors. Given that it is slow and gradual, governments tend to suffer from myopia in tackling the issue. This slow-onset however can also become an opportunity—more like a glass half-full rather than a glass half-empty situation. The episodic nature of droughts means there is time to implement the interventions, although it should be emphasized that the time is now. There is a need to look at droughts with a new set of lens—that of resilience. Thinking about the problem with a change in mindset, national-level planning, and access to bridge financing can be a helpful way to develop resilience.
[i] UNESCAP and ASEAN. (2021). Ready for the Dry Years: Building Resilience to Drought in Southeast Asia. Retrieved March 15, 2022 from https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/d8files/knowledge-products/Ready_for_the_Dry_Years_Second_edition.pdf.pdf.
[ii] UNESCAP. (2020). The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019: The Disaster Riskscape Across Asia-Pacific: Pathways for Resilience, Inclusion and Empowerment. Retrieved March 15, 2022 from https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/IDD-APDR-Subreport-SEA.pdf.
[iii] UNESCAP and ASEAN, (2021).
[iv] UNESCAP, (2020).
[v] Abdullah, K. (2017). Building Resilience for Sustainable ASEAN from Water-related Disasters. ROK-ASEAN Cooperation Project. Retrieved March 16, 2022 from https://environment.asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Building-Resilience-for-Sustainable-ASEAN-from-Water-Related-Disasters_Executive-Summary-Report_small.pdf.
[vi] Nair, S. & Howlett, M. (2017). Policy Myopia as a Source of Policy Failure: Adaptation and Policy Learning under Deep Uncertainty. Policy & Politics: Vol. 45, N.o 1, 103–18. DOI: 0.1332/030557316X14788776017743
[vii] Staupe-Delgado, R. (2019). Overcoming Barriers to Proactive Response in Slow-Onset Disasters. Contributing Paper to GAR 2019. Retrieved March 16, 2022 from https://www.undrr.org/publication/overcoming-barriers-proactive-response-slow-onset-disasters.
[viii] UNESCAP and ASEAN, (2021).
[ix] Bloomberg. (2019). Drought, wildfires inflict double whammy on Indonesian crops. Retrieved March 15, 2022 from https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/drought-wildfires-inflict-double-whammy-on-indonesian-crops.
[x] Board, J. (2020). Salty rivers, failed durian trees and waves consuming the shore: Climate change realities hit Gulf of Thailand. Retrieved March 17, 2022 from https://www.channelnewsasia.com/climatechange/climate-change-thailand-saltwater-intrusion-coast-erosion-durian-1339761.
[xi] ASEAN Secretariat (2018). ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2018. Available at https://asean.org/storage/2018/12/asyb-2018.pdf.
[xii] Reuters. (2019). Rice exports forecast to fall to lowest in 7 years. Retrieved March 15, 2022 from https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1837179/rice-exports-forecast-to-fall-to-lowest-in-7-years.
[xiii] UNESCAP. (2021). ASEAN Regional Plan of Action for Adaptation to Drought 2021-2025. Retrieved March 17, 2022 from https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ASEAN-Regional-Plan-of-Action_011121-FINAL-EDIT.pdf
[xiv] UNESCAP and ASEAN, (2021).